OPEC+ announced a slight increase in oil production for April, citing a "healthier oil market outlook." The alliance remains optimistic about global oil demand, forecasting growth of 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) for both 2025 and 2026. However, this optimism may not be the primary reason behind the decision, as OPEC+ has delayed easing its 2.2 million bpd production cuts multiple times before. By adding 138,000 bpd in April, the group sends a message of confidence while also appearing to appease U.S. President Donald Trump, who has pressured OPEC to lower oil prices.

Geopolitical factors are likely playing a key role in OPEC+'s decision. The alliance may be preparing for potential supply declines from Venezuela and Iran, both facing increasing U.S. sanctions. The Trump administration recently revoked Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela and imposed tariffs on Canadian and Mexican crude, leaving U.S. refiners with fewer options for heavy crude. While the 138,000 bpd increase is minor, it signals that OPEC+ is monitoring these developments closely and trying to avoid direct confrontation with the U.S.

Some analysts believe OPEC+ members are growing impatient with prolonged production cuts that have failed to push oil prices high enough to balance their budgets. Many members may now prefer to increase sales volumes rather than rely on higher prices. Analysts had expected OPEC+ to delay the production increase again, but the group instead announced a modest boost, possibly to avoid market panic that could lead to price declines. This move also benefits Russia, which may want to appear supportive as it awaits potential relief from U.S. sanctions.

Despite the increase, OPEC+ left the door open for adjustments, stating that production could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions. The group remains cautious about economic risks, including ongoing trade wars that could impact oil demand in the U.S. and China. RBC analysts warn that the U.S.-Canada trade dispute is the biggest economic shock between the two nations since the 1930s and could fuel inflationary pressures in the U.S. As OPEC+ navigates these uncertainties, its strategy will likely focus on adapting to evolving market conditions while avoiding direct clashes with the U.S. administration.